Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for October 5, 2017. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the Australian versus the US Dollar [AUDUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
It’s important to note though that over the next couple of days, today and tomorrow, we do have some significant news out of the US that could affect this currency pair. We did have some news out of Australia yesterday evening. Retail sales. Trade balance. A little bit of a mix. One was positive. One was negative. Today we have unemployment claims out of the US. We have a couple of FOMC members speaking, and then tomorrow non-farm payrolls out of the US as well.
Anyway. Coming over here to the daily timeframe, two different trends we’re going to discuss. The blue trend. Rising trend. Black trend line. Falling trend. The black trend line of course is the most recent trend that the currency pair has been in. It has been a falling trend. We see that the Forex Black Book is also red and a bearish bias to the Forex Black Book. So, as it’s pushing lower and if we’re looking to go short in the direction of the current movement, momentum, trend, then we would look for one of two opportunities to go short.
One would be a rally to resistance. Well, it came pretty close to the orange zone. 0.7885 was the orange-shaded area. Bottom of that orange-shaded area. It came as high yesterday as 0.7875. So, within about ten pips or so of that orange zone. Not quite close enough for me to take the short, but if you did, of course it was a successful opportunity as it has now pushed back down into 0.7815.
The next thing we’re looking for, if it doesn’t rally all the way to resistance, is that it breaks down underneath support. So, we could see, following the yellow-shaded area, 0.7800, 0.7830 back in time. You look back here to the left-hand side, green circle. Support. Green circle. Resistance. We know that this level is historical as a support and resistance level. Also, I’m going to take the shorter fib off for a moment. The longest fib that we have here from the lowest low of the chart, bottom left to the highest high, puts the .382 Fibonacci retracement level or 38 percent retracement level right here smack in the middle of the yellow-shaded area.
So, not only are we testing historical support and resistance where the green circles are. We are testing where that .382 Fibonacci retracement level lives. And if it can break there, we might look for the continuation lower towards at least the 50 percent, which is the green-shaded area here. The .618 of that same range sits way down here. Let me see if I can pull this over again to give us a better idea. Sits way down here at this orange-shaded area. That’s where the .618 fib retracement level lives. So, way down there into the 0.7620, 0.7635-level.
Now, that’s assuming that it can break through 0.7800 at this point, but that’s what we’re looking for today. Obviously it’s found a lot of support there. Zoom it in a little bit. You could see six days. Maybe even seven days if you count that candle challenging this support, challenging the .382. What we need to see is some clear evidence that it’s going to break out. Some clear evidence that it’s going to break out underneath that yellow-shaded area. For me, that’s going to be a singular candle body open and close underneath the yellow zone.
Take it down to the four-hour timeframe. Could give us a better opportunity if we’re looking for that open and close. Right now we’ve just been kind of rattling around inside this red box here above the yellow-shaded area. My preference, again, is looking for an open and close underneath that yellow zone, which you could see here didn’t do it. Bounced back up. So, that’s going to be the key breakout point. 0.7800. Back underneath there, open and close gives us a more confident move to continue pressuring back down into the mid to low-0.7700s for the AUDUSD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.