Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for March 9, 2018. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen [USDJPY] for today’s trade analysis. But before I get into the chart, it’s very important for me to mention the fact that in about 45 minutes from the recording of this video, we have significant news popping up. 8:30AM Eastern US time, Canadian employment change. Unemployment rate could dramatically affect the Canadian currency pairs. And as well at the very same time, US non-farm payrolls, earnings, and job news.
So, you’ll want to pay attention to that news. Use appropriate risk strategies in every trade scenario. May be more important for today, but keeping your risk at a minimum will help promote sustainable trading.
As we look at the market here for the USDJPY, we can see that it’s been in a downtrend. Not too hard to see that. Following all the way from up here into the 114s, down towards the 105-level. Bottoming out over the past few days, past week or so into 105.40, and now making its way back up.
What’s interesting is this pink-shaded area at 106.30, 106.60, where, for the past four days, it’s found resistance underneath it. We now see the market pressuring above 106.60. Follow it back in time. Not too far back, inside the blue box here, you could see six days holding above support, eventually breaking underneath it. So, we found support on top of the pink zone, resistance under it, and now we’re right back above it.
So, two things here. We’re breaking above the blue trend line and we’re breaking above that pink-shaded area. Happens to be some Fibonacci of a longer trend range sitting there as well into that pink zone. So, getting above the pink zone is the main focus for the day today. If we get some significantly positive news for the US – earnings, non-farm, unemployment rate all come out positive for the US, we could be looking for a nice rise out of the USDJPY back towards the orange-shaded area, 107.35, 107.65. If it’s negative, of course we may look for another turn back under the pink-shaded area.
That’s basically the way we’re going to look at that news today. Positive US, this goes higher. Negative US, this would typically go lower. And so, we’re looking at this pink zone to try to determine how we can best get our lowest risk and highest reward trading opportunities. Zoom it in on it a little bit and, again, you could see the market pressuring above it. We know that if it stays above it, history shows us that there’s this potential that it rises, at minimum, to the orange-shaded area, if not higher. And of course back underneath it, back to the yellow zone or lower at the bottom of the chart.
Let’s go ahead and take it on down to the four-hour timeframe. And as we get down here, we could see on the four-hour timeframe that we’ve already seen the market get above this. Take a look. It’s already above 106.60. Several four-hour candles already holding above 106.60. So, for the day today, with positive US news, as long as it’s above here, we may have an opportunity with a low risk and high reward opportunity to buy just above 106.60, targeting back into the low to mid-107s.
The risk is of course we suddenly see a reversal. Gets back underneath the pink zone. So, if you decide to buy above, stop losses underneath. That way you can limit the potential impact to your trading account if the market goes the opposite direction. And of course you’ll target the orange zone. I absolutely see no reason to go short at the current moment. As long as it’s above that pink zone, waiting for that news, but no reason to go short. But mostly potential opportunities here to go long on the USDJPY today.
Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.