Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for February 9, 2018. Today we’re going to take a look at the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar [USDCAD] for today’s trade analysis.
Now, it’s important for us to recognize that in about 45 minutes from the recording of this video, we have significant news out of Canada. If you look up here at the top of my screen, 8:30AM Eastern US time, we have employment change, unemployment rate out of Canada. Forecast 10.3000 for employment change. 5.8 percent for unemployment rate. That’s a rise from 5.7 percent. So, if it goes up, if unemployment rate goes up, we would likely look for a selloff of the CAD and this currency pair, USDCAD, to go up.
So, poor news for Canada sends this currency pair higher. What’s interesting about this is that we have seen the market close and now open above the 1.2590, 1.2600-level, the pink-shaded area that we’ve been discussing here on the chart in the live Trade Room. Follow it back in time. You could see these circles showing historical resistance here and here and here. And to get above there, the market would then move towards the blue-shaded area as the next area of resistance.
Fibonacci, by the way, from the high of the black trend line to the low puts the 50 percent at 1.2584, top of the pink zone. .618 up here towards the 1.2665-level, the blue-shaded area. So, we know technically we’re breaking through historical resistance, the pink-shaded area. Technically, we’re breaking through the 50 percent retracement level of the black trend line. And it’s been momentum and sentiment has been bullish here. We’ve also seen oil falling, which has given a boost for this to continue to climb higher.
So, again, if the news comes out poor, lower on the employment change or higher on unemployment rate, then we would likely look for this currency pair to go higher. Now, if this changes, if this doesn’t reach 5.8, if it’s 5.7 or lower, 5.6, then we would expect it to turn around and go back down. And of course if employment change is much higher than 10.3, let’s say it’s up there closer to that 78 number or higher, then we would look for this to also turn around and go back down.
So, we know the news can have a dramatic effect. We just need to pay attention to that coming up, again, in about 45 minutes from the recording of this video. Again, technically speaking, let’s turn the news off for a moment. Technically speaking, we are pushing through resistance. So, in a normal situation without the news, we would expect hey, we’re now looking to buy this above 1.2590, targeting 1.2655 or higher, which is of course the blue-shaded area.
And of course we do have the 100-period moving average that we’re contending with right now. It’s challenging it right now. Yesterday closed under it. Today we’re challenging that 100-period moving average as well. Zoom it in a little bit. You could see that a little bit more detailed just above that pink-shaded area.
Let’s go down to the four-hour timeframe and zoom it out a little bit. Now we could see that the market has actually been sitting on top of that pink-shaded area over the past several hours. So, if you’re already in the buy, it’s possible you could already be buying this above the 1.2590-level as it opened and closed. Sat down on top of it. The 1.2590-level. If you’re already buying it, you should take measures to protect yourself as we approach that news coming up in just a short period of time.
We know that the risk here is that it breaks back under the pink zone. So, as long as it’s above this pink zone and if we get poor news for Canada, we’re buying, targeting the mid to upper-1.2600s. If it gets back under the pink zone and we have great news for Canada, then we look for this to head back down towards the green zone. So, we know what to expect on the news if it’s poor or strong and we know what technically that market has been doing. It’s continued this rising phase that it’s been in for a little while now.
So, watching this with the news and watching the breakout on the USDCAD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.