I am very excited about tonights release becuase it has been a good moverbut before we get into that lets review.
OUR LAST TRADE CALL
Today we had US CPI which was released as expected so no trade there. After the release was done we watched the market for a while and I suggested a short after the break of the lows of the existing range which did provide for a nice move down.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow we have UK Retail Sales expected at .4%. This will be released at 4:30am eastern and I would like to see a .4% deviation to trade this. A higher number signals a buy and a lower number signals a sell.
What this means is if the release comes out 0.0% I will short GRP/USD and if it comes out at .8% I will go long on the GBP/USD. I would like to see around 30+ pips of profit on this trade maybe more depending on current market conditions at the time of the trade.
HISTORICLE MOVEMENT
Going back over this release you will notice that historically it every time it has come out .4 off from the expected the average movement has been around 35 pips. There were a few time that it only move 20+ pips however there were conflicting revisions which played a major role in the lack of movement.
I considered .3% as a trigger however the only time it really moved Well there was a revision that was also .3 in favor of the release which helped out quite a bit in moving it along. The majority of the releases that were .3 or less moved the market less than 20 pips.
For those that are members I recommend spending some time going Over this study and identifying how the revisions have affected the market. There is over 3 years of data including screenshots of all the trades so take advantage of this invaluable resource.
Good Luck trading!!!
