Transcript of Video
From Forex Traders Daily, this is your daily analysis with Ross Mullins, live from Richmond, Virginia.
Hello everyone, this is today’s video analysis for February 13, 2018. Today we’re going to take a look at the Australian versus the US Dollar [AUDUSD] for today’s trade analysis.
Starting on the daily timeframe, we’re looking back in time a little bit to see what has happened around the level that we’re at. The level the current market is at is 0.7865. You follow that back in time. It’s the yellow zone right about the middle of the chart. First off, you follow it back a little bit. You see this blue circle, where the market found resistance on the way up within the uptrend.
So, it was moving higher. Found resistance. Five days before breaking out and going higher right here at this little blue circle inside the blue box just above the black trend line. Resistance there into the 0.7865-level. Follow it back a little bit further. Let’s look at the other blue circle farther on the left-hand side of the chart. And six days finding resistance within the downtrend.
So, it’s moving lower. Got underneath the yellow zone. Found resistance. Made another low. Came back up. Here in this period, the black circle. It did make its way a little bit higher towards the orange-shaded area, which sits closer to 0.7890. So, that’s an interesting area there because if we expect resistance at the yellow zone, there may be this opportunity for it to zip back up here to the orange zone before falling again like it did back here at the black circle.
But there’s clearly an area of resistance here at the yellow-shaded area underneath 0.7865. The two blue circles and even the black circle really show us that this is a difficult region or area or price level for the AUDUSD. Clearly we have been moving down in recent weeks. Let’s zoom it in one more time. We’ve been moving lower in recent weeks. A clearly bearish move along the blue trend line on the right-hand side.
So, we’ve been watching for a little bit of a rally and potential reversal to go back down in the direction of our current trend that we see here for the AUDUSD. Now, obviously the market doesn’t have to go down. It could turn around and go back up. So, we need to be watchful for evidence of that. But at least at the current moment, 0.7865 seems to be holding the AUDUSD from moving higher.
We did take Fibonacci from the highest high, down to the lowest low of this blue trend. Highest high on the chart, down to the most recent low. That put the .236 right at 0.7847, bottom of the yellow zone. So, there was this potential that it found resistance here into the yellow zone and went back down. It just has pressured a little bit higher. The .382 of that same range sits up here at the orange zone incidentally. The level that we looked at next.
And then, further beyond that, Fibonacci puts it all the way up here towards the pink-shaded area. So, be watchful for a couple of things. Either resistance, reversal to go back down in the direction of the most recent trend or change of that. Higher highs, higher lows for the AUDUSD.
Let’s take it down here to the four-hour timeframe. Take a look at what’s happened over the past several hours. Five four-hour periods, so we’re looking at 20 hours almost. 0.7865 holding as our resistance. So, at least at this point, what that tells us with five four-hour candles holding here at 0.7865 is probably not our best opportunity to go long and buy the AUDUSD. Buying right now has been capped at 0.7865, unable to break it and go higher.
So, if you’re looking for a long shot, you actually need it to get above that area before you would look for the buy scenario. And that could be an option as the day goes on if the market breaks through 0.7865. A buy towards the orange zone or the pink zone could be an option for you if you’re looking for the long shot on the AUDUSD.
Now, if you’re looking for the short, I think we need to see some indication of selling pressure. There isn’t any indication of selling pressure. We only see indication of resistance. So, a turn back underneath 0.7845, under the yellow zone, may tell us that the market is turning back bearish again for the AUSUSD. So, one of two things. Either above the yellow zone, we look for it to move higher, or below the yellow zone, we begin looking for a new fall off for the AUDUSD today.
From Forex Traders Daily, this has been your daily analysis with Ross. If you would like to get Ross’ analysis on all the currency pairs he’s watching and all the trades he takes today, join him in his live Trade Room by clicking on the link below. Please leave any comments you have about today’s video in the comment section below.