OUR LAST LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Friday was our last trade call and the plan was to go long if the non farm came out higher than expected by 50k or more. a couple of things happened during this release. The first was the actual number came out lower than expected by around 39k. At the same time we had a revision from last month by around 39k as well but it was revised up which conflicted with the actual release.
Prior to the release I told everyone in the live trade room that I would not be going long at all due to the possibility of a large positive revision for the US dollar thru march of 2006; this revision would be based on jobs that were missed.
There is lot of reason for this but to give an example during the time immediately following hurricane Katrina it was very difficult to contact many of the employers in the Gulf Coast Region which caused many of the jobs to not get accounted for. To read the entire article you can follow this link.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/01/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postvers
Once the number came out we listened in for the revisions and in fact they did add over 700k jobs which caused the dollar to strengthen quite a bit and the GBP fell which gave a good opportunity for some. So we passed on this trade however there were some profits made based on the revision. To see the video of this trade click this link
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL.
Tomorrow we have the UK Industrial Production coming out at 4:30 am eastern. The expected number is .1 and I will be looking for around .5 in deviation. What this means is if the actual number comes out .6 or more I will go long on the GBP/USD and if it comes out -.4 or lower I will go short.
We will be watching the m/m figure however I will also keep tabs on the yearly figure as it can have some affect on the market. There are a few smaller releases coming out however I will not even comment on them as I don’t expect them to have any affect.
If our triggers are struck this could be a really good trade so I will expect 30 possibly 40 or more pips depending on the supporting release.
Good Luck trading!!!
