This morning we were watching data from Canada as well as the
US. I focused more on the Canadian Trade Balance than the U.S.
Trade Balance report. The plan for the Canadian Trade Balance
report was to go short on the EUR/CAD if it came out higher
than expected by more than $.8 Billion. The reason we traded
the EUR/CAD in place of the USD/CAD is two fold. First the
EUR/CAD tends to move more than the USD/CAD, and secondly the
US data was coming out at the same time which would also have
an affect on the USD/CAD.
The CAD Trade Balance had a deviation of $1.02 Billion, so it
met our safe trigger and we entered this trade. We had many
traders report profits of up to 35 pips on this trade. The
U.S. Trade Balance did not meet our triggers, so we did not
enter that trade. If you would like to see the video of these
trades you can click this link:
TRADING OPPORTUNITIES LATER TODAY
There is an opportunity to trade tonight when the NZD Retail
Sales report is released at 4:45 pm EST. Your focus should be
on the NZD Retail Sales All, which will be Row 1 of the RSS and
is expected to be 0.0%. We have placed a safe trigger of 0.3
for this release. We have seen a deviation of at least 0.3%
very month for seven out of the last eight months, and each
release has provided moves of between 20-40 pips. We will not
have the Live Trade Room open, but I wanted to make you aware
of this potential trade opportunity.
Another opportunity will be at 7:30 EST when the AUD Labor
Force Employment Change report is released. Your focus at that
time should be on the Employment Change figure, which will be
Row 1 on the RSS. The expectation for this release is 20k
jobs. We have placed a safe trigger of 20k for this release.
This trade has met our safe trigger three times this year,
providing moves of 20-40 pips each time. Again, we will not
have the Live Trade Room open for this release.
OUR NEXT LIVE ON THE NEWS TRADE CALL
Tomorrow we will have an opportunity to trade when the US
Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 am EDT. We will
be focusing on the Retail Sales Less Autos figure, which will
be Row 1 on the RSS. The expectation for this report is 0.6%.
We will be looking for a deviation of 0.5% to trigger a safe
trade. A higher than expected number would be good for the USD
and would signal a short on the GBP/USD, and a lower than
expected number would be bad for the USD so that would signal a
long on the GBP/USD.
The last time this release met our safe trigger was in
September, we had traders report profits of up to 20 pips. To
see a video of September’s release, please click on the link
below:
This is our current outlook for this trade; however, it is
subject to change as market conditions may change by tomorrow.
Be sure to log in to the Live Trade Room 15 minutes prior to
the release to get my commentary on this potential trade.
Good Luck!!!!
